柔性工程理论在极地船舶航行风险防控中的应用

INCORPORATION OF RESILIENCE ENGINEERING THEORY INTO RISK PREVENTION AND CONTROL IN POLAR WATERS

为预防和减少极地水域交通事故,提高船舶在极地水域通航风险防控能力,根据柔性工程理论的内涵特征和极地水域船舶通航风险,提出极地水域船舶航行风险防控柔性系统的体系构架。根据柔性系统构建的四要素(学习、预测、监测和应对)及其与环境之间的联系,从环境分析、脆性机理、风险预测、状态监测和危机应对等五个方面,讨论了极地水域船舶航行风险防控柔性系统构建所涉及的关键技术,为提升极地水域船舶航行风险防控能力和技术水平,建设安全、便捷、高效、经济、绿色的现代化海运体系,提供理论基础支持。

Navigation in polar waters is complex, with numerous potential hazards and emergency scenarios. Ships operating in polar waters face challenging environmental factors including marine icing, cold temperatures, electromagnetic distortion, high winds and low visibility. Resilience engineering is a recently developed system theory applied to the field of safety science. Resilience is the ability of a system to withstand a major disruption with acceptable degradation parameters, and the ability to recover within an acceptable time frame and with acceptable composite costs and risks. A resilient system depends on four abilities ： learning, anticipation, monitoring, and response. The Navigational Risk Prevention and Control Resilient System in Polar Waters （NRPCRS-PW） is proposed to minimize the occurrence of marine transportation accidents in polar waters, to improve navigational risk prevention, and to control navigational ability. The NRPCRS-PW is developed according to the major connotations of resilience engineering and navigational risk in polar waters. The concepts and dependencies of resilience abilities related to environment and the key technologies of NRPCRS-PW are discussed based on five steps： environmental analysis, vulnerability mechanisms, risk forecasting, state monitoring, and crisis response. This research presents a method to improve risk control capacity in polar waters, which in turn contributes to safe, convenient, effective, and environ- mentally sensitive maritime transportation.