公路交通与经济发展适应性诊断方法——以重庆市为例

A Diagnostic Method of Highway Traffic and Economic Development Adaptability——A Case Study of Chongqing City

基于公路交通与经济发展的关联规律,提出一种公路交通与经济发展适应性诊断方法。该方法在定性分析公路交通与经济发展关系的基础上,用最小二乘法建立经济发展水平、产业结构与公路发展水平、结构之间的回归模型,剖析公路交通与经济发展的关联规律,并用此规律来诊断公路交通与经济发展适应性。通过生产函数对公路交通建设投资与社会经济其他领域投资的比较有效性分析来间接识别诊断结果的可靠性。对重庆市2005—2014年公路交通与经济发展的适应性进行诊断,得出适应和超前的结论,并且这种适度超前具有效经济性。

A method for diagnosing the adaptability between highway traffic and economic development is put forward on the basis of the relating law between highway traffic and economic development.In the method,upon qualitatively analyzing the correlation between highway traffic and economic development,the regression model of economic development level,industrial structure,highway development level and structure is established by least square method in order to analyze the relating law,and the adaptability between highway traffic and economic development is diagnosed by the law.The reliability of diagnosis result is indirectly distinguished by using the production function to compare the effectiveness of investment in highway traffic construction and other social economic fields.Highway traffic and economic development adaptability of Chongqing city from year 2005 to year 2014 are diagnosed with conclusions of adaptation and advance which are cost-effective.