加工贸易下中国双边贸易出口碳排放核算及实证研究

Chinese Bilateral Trade Export Carbon Emissions Accounting and Influence Factors' Empirical Research under Processing Trade Background

利用世界投入产出表,采取进口国投入产出技术系数和碳排放系数测算了在加工贸易背景下中国对主要贸易国的出口碳排放总量和单位碳排放强度,比较了现有的几种测算方法下中国出口碳排放的差异,分析了加工贸易下影响中国出口碳排放的原因。中国的绿色全要素生产率持续走低,中国高投入低产出的生产状态导致中国的绿色全要素生产率(gtfp1)越低、中间投入占比(interput1)越高,中国的出口碳排放和单位碳排放强度越低。加工贸易进口令中间品生产污染转移至国外,降低了中国的出口碳排放总量和单位强度,验证了中国的"污染天堂"理论并不存在。

The paper calculates Chinese export trade carbon emissions to it＇s main trade partners by WIOD,and utilizes the partner＇s I-O technique parameter and carbon emissions intensity from consuming side. It analyzes the factors affecting export carbon emissions, and finds the results as followings： Chinese green TFP（ gtfp1） lower, intermediate inputs（ interput1） higher,which has caused Chinese exports lower carbon emissions lower and carbon intensity lower. Increase of processing trade imports has reduced Chinese total export carbon emissions and unit export carbon emission intensity. Furthermore,it proves that Chinese ＂ pollution haven＂ theory does not exist.