基于相对关联度的突发水污染事件应急群决策研究

Group Decision Making for Emergency of Water Pollution Response Based on Relative Relation Grade

突发水污染事件是在短时间内发生的,具有不确定性、信息的不完全性,需集各方专家的智慧进行联合决策,以最大限度地减少突发水污染事件带来的损失。针对突发水污染事件的信息不完全性,考虑属性值、属性权重和决策者权重均为区间灰数的应急决策问题,提出了一种基于相对关联度的突发水污染事件应急群决策模型,即在构建各决策者加权规范化决策矩阵的基础上,建立各决策者的正、负靶心并计算正、负关联度,构建群体相对关联度评分矩阵;再根据各决策者的权威权重求得群体综合相对关联度;引入区间灰数可能度的概念,根据可能度矩阵的排序向量对应急方案进行排序择优。案例分析表明,该方法有效可行。

The emergency of water pollution occurred in a short time always related to uncertainty and incomplete information,group decision is needed to minimize the loss caused by emergent events.In emergency event of water pollution decision-making,its attribute value,attribute weight and authority weight are interval grey numbers.In order to solve this group decision making problem,a method based relative relation grade is proposed for emergency management.Based on the normalization of the attribute value with different indexes,the positive and negative clouts of each decision-maker are constructed as to calculate group relative relation grade.According to the authority weights of decision-makers,group comprehensive relative relation grade is obtained.Then introducing the concept of interval grey number probable-grade,the best project is selected by use of ordering-vector of probable-grade matrix.Finally,a case study is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.