江西南丰县秋季降水量和雨日特征分析及预测方程

Jiangxi Nanfeng County Autumn Precipitation and Rain Characteristics Analysis and Prediction Model

以南丰国家气象观测一级站1957-2015年大气探测资料为基础,使用Excel图表、线性气候倾向率、相关分析等方法,分析近58年来南丰县秋季降水量和雨日特征。结果表明:南丰县秋季降水量年代际变化线性趋势上升,达到σ=0.05显著水平;秋季≥0.1 mm雨日年际和年代际变化线性趋势均下降,分别达到σ=0.01和σ=0.05显著水平;秋季≥25.0 mm雨日和≥50.0 mm雨日年代际变化线性趋势均上升,均达到σ=0.01显著水平;秋季降水强度在随年代际增大,降水分布随年代际变化不均匀,旱、涝发生频率变大。

Nanfeng national meteorological observation level station 1957- 2015 atmospheric sounding data as the basis,using Excel charts,linear climate tendency rate,correlation analysis and other methods,nearly 58 years,Nanfeng County autumn precipitation and rainy days feature analysis. Results show that Nanfeng County autumn rainfall in the interdecadal variation linear trend rise reached sigma σ = 0. 05 significant level; autumn is more than or equal to 0. 1 mm rainy days interannual and decadal interdecadal variation linear trend decreased at sigma σ = 0. 01 and sigma σ = 0. 05 significant level,respectively; autumn is more than or equal to 25. 0 mm rainy days and more than or equal to 50. 0 mm rainy days in interannual variations of the linear trend were increased and reached the sigma σ = 0. 01 significant level; autumn rainfall intensity with intergenerational increases,precipitation distribution with intergenerational variation is not uniform,drought and flood frequency becomes larger.