中国奶牛养殖时空变化及影响因素研究

Study on the Temporal and Spatial Variation and its Influencing Factors of Dairy Farming in China

本文选用2008年以来的数据,对中国奶牛养殖的时空变化进行系统的阐述和分析,然后建立空间面板数据模型对中国奶牛养殖时空变化的影响因素进行研究,发现饲料价格对中国奶牛养殖的时空变化起到了负向的影响,生鲜乳收购价格以及乳品企业乳制品产量对中国奶牛养殖的时空变化起到了正向的影响,进而为中国奶牛养殖空间布局的优化提出相关政策建议。

This paper analyzed and elaborated systematically the temporal and spatial changes of Chinese dairy farming by using the data since 2008.And then built the spatial panel data model to study influencing factors on temporal and spatial variation of dairy farming in China.The model found that feed prices had a negative impact and fresh milk purchase price and dairy production had a positive influence on the temporal and spatial variation in China＇s dairy farming.Finally,the author put forward the relevant policy recommendations about optimization of spatial layout on dairy farming in China.