骚扰阿蚊扩散种群动态及适生区分析

Diffusion,population dynamics and potential distribution of Armigeres subalbatus

目的了解骚扰阿蚊(Armigeres subalbatus)在我国的扩散趋势及种群变化,同时预测其潜在适生区。方法野外调查获得标本,查对馆藏标本相关记录,结合文献报道分析骚扰阿蚊扩散及种群动态趋势。整理骚扰阿蚊分布记录,结合20个环境相关变量,建立生态小生境模型,比较其潜在适生区的变化。通过ROC曲线分析检验模型准确性,利用刀切法逐一分析环境变量贡献值。结果野外调查在山东潍坊及威海地区发现骚扰阿蚊新分布点。结合文献及馆藏标本分析发现该物种正逐渐向古北界华北区扩散,目前已接近北纬42°地区,部分地区种群已逐渐发展为区域主要物种。本研究收集并整理了骚扰阿蚊相关资料,共获得294个分布记录。研究以2000年为时间分隔,运用Maxent软件分别构建了2000年和2016年的分布预测模型,发现2016年的预测分布范围较2000年已明显向北推移,即骚扰阿蚊的潜在适生区呈向北扩大的趋势。模型检验ROC分析结果显示两个模型AUC值分别为0.980和0.982,模型可信度极高。刀切法分析结果表明最暖季度平均湿度、最湿月份湿度和最湿季度湿度对预测骚扰阿蚊的分布具有重要影响。结论骚扰阿蚊种群分布向北逐渐扩散,气候变暖可能是造成扩散的原因。该物种的扩散一定程度影响当地蚊种组成,同时可能会增加部分蚊媒疾病传播的风险。

Objective To investigate the diffusion trend of Armigeres subalbatus and analyze its potential geographic distribution in China. Methods The trend analysis of diffusion and population dynamics were carried out based on three aspects including literature reports,information of museum specimens and new collection records from our field survey. To compare the potential geographic distribution,two ecological niche models were constructed by Maxent software based on the geographic presence occurrence data and 20 environmental variables. The final models were evaluated with the receiver operating characteristics curve（ROC）. The analyses of variable contributions were confirmed by using the Jackknife method. Results The populations in Weifang and Weihai,Shandong Province were reported for the first time. The results showed that this species was spread to the Palaearctic Northern Region and reached 42° north latitude regions. In some areas,it gradually developed into a dominant species. A total of 294 georeferenced occurrence points of A. subalbatus were found out. Two predictions of Maxent models were established based on the presence occurrence data in 2000 and 2016,respectively. The results showed that the current distribution range of A. subalbatus had been significantly northward expanded compared with 2000. It means that the potential suitable area gradually spread northward. The ROC analysis results showed the AUC values were 0.980 and 0.982,and it indicated that the models had a high reliability. The Jackknife method displayed that the precipitation of warmest quarter,precipitation of wettest month and precipitation of wettest quarter were the dominant environmental variables that mainly contributed to the distribution of A. subalbatus. Conclusions A. subalbatus distribution gradually spreads northward,and climate warming is probably the main reason for the diffusion. It could affect the local mosquito species composition and increase the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission.