FDI对中国经济增长影响的实证分析——基于Almon分布滞后模型

Empirical Analysis of Impact of FDI on China's Economic Growth——Based on Almon Distributed Lag Model

外商直接投资(FDI)在世界经济发展中扮演着重要的角色。中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家,如何更好地利用外资推动经济发展,在经济发展的同时更好地吸引外资尤为重要。基于我国2003—2012年FDI和GDP的数据,通过Almon分布滞后模型检验了FDI和经济增长的关系。结果表明,GDP和FDI的关系是长期、均衡的;GDP与FDI之间存在单向的因果关系,FDI的增加是GDP增长的格兰杰原因;FDI的增加对经济增长的影响是显著的正向推动作用。

Foreign direct investment（ FDI） plays a very important role in the development of world economy.As the biggest developing country in the world,China＇s economic growth has been greatly influenced by foreign direct investment（ FDI）.How to make better use of FDI to promote China＇s economic development and attract foreign investment is particularly significant.Based on the data of FDI and GDP between 2003 and 2012 in China,this paper tested the relationship between FDI and economic growth with Almon distributed lag model.The results of the test show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and FDI.Besides,There is a oneway causal relationship between GDP and FDI,that is,FDI drives the growth of GDP.The final conclusion is that FDI plays a positive role in promoting economic growth.