技术指标分析在证券投资中的应用——基于因子分析和Logistic回归分析

Application of Technical Indicators Analysis in Investment Securities ——Based on Factor Analysis and Logistic Regression Analysis

技术指标分析是证券投资分析的重要组成部分,由于股票技术指标数量多、不确定性强以及指标数据量庞大,国内外在证券指标分析上的文献并不是太多。在股票操作中,股票运行的低点和高点是证券投资者关注的焦点问题。文中以中国A股上市银行为研究对象,采用因子分析和Logistic回归分析的方法,研究股票技术指标对股价高点的解释能力,探求股票处于相对高点时有效的技术指标组合判断方法,从而预测股票价格的变动趋势,为证券投资者尤其是中小投资者提供长期理性的投资依据。

Technical indicators analysis is an important part of investment securities analysis. Because of the great quantity, strong uncertainty and huge data volume of stock technical index, there is a lack of stock index analysis in the domestic and foreign literature. In the stock operation, securities investors often focus on the low and high prices. This paper takes A-share banks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges as researching samples, and adopts factor analysis and Logistic regression analysis to study the interpretative ability of stock technical index to the high share price. The article is aimed at predicting the trends of stock price by means of exploring the effective methods of the technical indicators combinations at a relatively high share price. What＇s more, this paper provides a long-term and rational investment reference for securities investors, especially small investors.