基于灰度理论的煤炭价格中长期预测研究

Research on Mid-long Term Forecast of Coal Price based on Gray-scale Theory

煤炭价格的精确预测对上下游行业规避经营风险、调整产业规模及宏观层面的能源价格政策引导均有积极意义。将灰度理论应用到煤炭价格中长期走势预测研究中,构建了煤炭价格的灰度预测模型,对未来8个季度的煤炭价格进行预测及精确度分析。研究结果显示,灰度预测模型具有良好的预测性能,能够较好地拟合并预测煤炭价格中长期走势,具有一定的理论和实践意义。

The precise forecast of coal price will have positive significance for the operation risk avoidance in upstream and downstream industries, adjustment of industrial scale and introduction of energy pride policy on macro level. This article uses gray-scale model into mid-long term forecast, establishes the gray-scale forecast model for coal price, and forecastsi and takes an accuracy analysis of coal prices for 8 quarters. The result shows： the gray-scale forecast model has a fine forecast func- tion, it can fit and forecast the mid-long term trend of coal price more precisely, and thus has theoretical and practical mean- ing.