城乡居民收入性质对城乡消费差距的影响研究

Influence of the Nature of Chinese Residents Income on the Gap of Urban-rural Consumption

针对中国城乡居民消费差距高位徘徊、消费结构二元并行格局的研究要突破收入数量视角,从收入性质视角予以深刻剖析。基于经典消费理论核心思想,引申出收入的暂时性、流动性、相对性、可预期性和跨期支配性等性质,并采用1991—2013年中国29个省份的相关数据,运用固定效应变系数面板模型实证分析收入性质对城乡消费差距的影响,研究表明:在收入量既定的条件下,收入性质对城乡消费差距的影响显著;农村居民持久收入增长幅度超过城镇居民、收入向上流动幅度大于城镇居民,才能使城乡消费差距缩小;农村居民对正向不确定收入的消费倾向于抑制,而对负向不确定收入的消费则存在棘轮效应;农村居民收入跨期支配性对城乡消费差距具有弥合效应。因此,在增加农民收入数量的同时,也应注重其收入性质的改善,才能有效缩小城乡消费差距。

According to high-level lingering of urban-rural resident consumption gap of China,the research on the dual parallel pattern of consumption structure should breakthrough income perspective and should analyze it from the perspective of income nature. Based on the core thoughts of classic consumption theory to introduce the temporality,mobility,relativity,forecast,trans-stage payment and so on,by using the relative data of 29 provinces and municipalities of China during 1991-2013,by using fixed effects variable-coefficient panel model,the influence of the income nature on the urban-rural income gap is empirically analyzed. The research shows that under the fixed income,there is significant impact of income nature on urban-rural income gap,that if the growth amplitude of permanent income of rural residents is higher than that of urban residents and if the upward flowing amplitude of rural residents is higher than that of urban residents,the urban-rural consumption gap can be narrowed. The consumption tendency of rural residents towards positive uncertain income is inclined to be suppressed but the consumption tendency towards negative uncertain income has ratcheting effect,the trans-stage payment of rural residents towards urban-rural income gap has close effect. Therefore,while rural resident income level is increased,their income nature improvement should be also emphasized so that urban-rural income gap can be narrowed.