济南市1961～2013年气候变化特征

Characteristics of Climate Change in Jinan during 1961 ～ 2013

根据济南市1961~2013年逐月气温、降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、距平统计、5年滑动平均、MannKendall突变检验法和Molert小波分析方法,对济南市近53年气候变化特征进行了研究.结果表明：（1）济南市年平均气温以0.11℃/10a的速率增温,近53年升高了0.58℃.春季、秋季、冬季的平均气温均呈上升趋势,增温幅度分别为0.16,0.10,0.23℃/10a,而夏季的平均气温以0.03℃/10a的速率下降,冬季气温升高对年平均气温升高的贡献率最大.年平均气温在1977年发生突变且升温明显,在32a,20a,11a时间尺度上存在周期震荡,其中32a振动周期表现稳定.（2）年平均最高气温和年平均最低气温分别以0.10,0.20℃/10a的幅度上升,平均最低气温的升高是气候变暖的重要因素.（3）近53年济南市年降水量以1.30 mm/10a幅度呈略微上升趋势.春季和冬季降水量分别以8.19,0.49 mm/10a的速率增加,而夏季和秋季分别以2.66,4.72 mm/10a幅度呈下降趋势,年降水量主要集中在夏季,占全年降水量的66%,年内降水分配及不均匀.降水在2000年由较少时期向丰水期发生突变,在31a,23a,8a,5a时间尺度上存在周期震荡,其中31a振动周期表现稳定.

Based on the temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 2013 in Jinan,this research takes such methods as linear tendency estimation,distance adjustment,5 years sliding average,Mann-Kendall mutation test and Molert wavelet analysis to study the climate change characteristics in Jinan during the past 53 years. The results show that： 1 the annual average temperature is increasing at a rate of 0. 11℃ /10 a,and increased by0. 58℃ in the last 53 years. In spring,autumn and winter,the average temperature has a rising trend,reaching0. 16,0. 10,0. 23℃ /10 a,respectively,while in summer,the average temperature decreased with the rate of0. 03℃ / 10 a,and the annual temperature increase in winter was the most significant. The abrupt changes of the average temperature were mainly detected in 1977 and the temperature rise obviously,there are three periodic oscillation in the 32,20 and 11 years circles,and the vibration period of 32 years is stable. 2The annual average maximum temperature and annual average minimum temperature are rising at the rate of 0. 10,0. 20℃ /10 a,respectively,and the increase of the average minimum temperature is the important factor of climate change. 3 In the last 53 years,the annual rainfall had a slight increase trend of 1. 30 mm /10 a in Jinan. In spring and winter,the rate increased by 8. 19 mm /10 a and 0. 49 mm /10 a respectively,while in summer and autumn,the annual rainfall decreased with the rate of 2. 6 mm /10 a and 4. 72 mm /10 a,respectively. The annual rainfall was mainly concentrated in summer,which accounted for 66%,and the annual rainfall distribution was uneven distribution. The rainfall changed from dry period to wet period in 2000. There are four periodic oscillation in the 31,23,8 and 5 years circle,in which the 31 years vibration cycle is stable.