旅游流与目的地系统耦合研究——以六大城市入境旅游为例

The system coupling between tourist flow and destination:an empirical analysis of inbound tourism in six major cities

对旅游流与目的地的互动关系展开"系统整合研究",有利于构建整体旅游复杂系统的理论框架,可有效推动旅游系统内部要素关系、发展演化规律以及供需平衡预测和调控等问题的解决。本文以北京、上海、广州、西安、成都和昆明的入境旅游为例,构建旅游流与城市目的地综合评价指标体系,应用灰色关联模型对1993-2012年六大典型城市旅游流与目的地系统互动关联耦合程度进行了定量评价,并分析了系统内部要素耦合作用强度分异特征。研究结果显示:(1)入境旅游流系统内的耦合主导要素是游客流量和流速,目的地系统内的耦合主导要素是旅游服务设施与服务人员和目的地经济环境;(2)典型旅游城市的入境旅游流与目的地系统长期处于磨合发展阶段,北京、上海的耦合度呈现倒"U"型变化趋势,广州、西安、成都和昆明的耦合度则表现出波动下降的趋势;(3)在入境旅游流系统的耦合主导要素上:东部三大城市主导要素分化明显,而西部三大城市均以旅游客流规模主导,其他要素为辅;(4)在目的地系统的耦合主导要素上:东部三大城市的自然、经济和社会环境要素的主导作用更强,而西部三大城市的旅游服务设施与服务人员以及基础设施要素主导作用更强,这表明两系统耦合质量的提升更需要依赖目的地整体环境的支撑,但西部城市由于受到较差的区位条件和较低的旅游经济发展水平的限制,对目的地系统的核心供给要素和媒介支撑要素的投入仍处于边际报酬递增阶段。

System Integration Research on the interaction of tourist flow and destination contributes to the theoretical framework of tourism system and settles issues on internal element relations, law of development and evolvement, forecasting, regulating supply and demand balance. Taking inbound tourism of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi＇ an, Chengdu, and Kunming as research objects, we constructed a coupling evaluation index system for inbound tourist flows and destination. With application of a gray associative model, we conducted a quantitative evaluation of the coupling degree of inbound tourist flow system and destination system in the six cities from 1993 to 2012, and examined the coupling effect degree of system elements. We found that the velocity and quantity of tourist flow are the most important coupling dominant elements in inbound tourist flow system, while tourism service facility, personnel and destination economic environment are the most important coupling dominant elements in destination system. The coupling system between tourist flow and destination in these tourist cities has long been amelioration coupling. The fluctuation of coupling degree between the two systems is an inverted U in Beijing and Shanghai, and in the other cities coupling degree shows a downward trend. In the aspect of the coupling dominant elements in inbound tourist flow system, the differentiation of dominant elements in eastern cities is obvious, but in western cities the dominant elements are similar, showing tourist flow scale as the dominant element and other elements as supplementary. As for coupling dominant elements in the destination system, the natural, economic and social environment have stronger effects on system coupling in eastern cities, while tourism service facility and personnel and infrastructure have stronger effects in western cities. This indicates that enhancing the coupling quality of the systems needs to rely on the support of the overall environment of the destination. Hindered by poor geographical conditions and low levels of economic development, investment in core supply elements and media support elements on the destination system in western cities is still at a stage of increasing marginal returns.