车辆机械故障与交通事故严重性关系模型

The Model of Relationship between Vehicle Mechanical Failures and Accidents Severity

车辆是导致交通事故发生的重要因素,尤其车辆机械故障引发的伤亡事故较为严重。为量化车辆机械故障与交通事故严重性的关联,从交通事故致因角度,将机械故障分为4大类,并应用Logistic理论,以事故严重程度为因变量,以4类致因为自变量,构建模型。并经相关检验,模型正确,有效性较强。结果表明:制动失效的回归系数为1.354,转向失效、失去动力和其它故障的回归系数分别是-0.853、-2.387和-4.118,说明制动失效发生严重性事故的概率较大,而另3类机械故障导致严重性事故概率相对较小。

Vehicle is an important factor leading to the occurrence of traffic accidents,especially the accidents caused by vehicle mechanical failure are more serious. In order to quantify the relationship between mechanical failure of vehicle and the severity of traffic accidents,the mechanical failures are divided into 4 categories from the angle of traffic accidents causation,The logistic theory was applied to construct the model with the accident severity as the dependent variable,and the 4 categories of causation as the independent variables. The relevant proved that the model is correct and effective. The results showed that the regression coefficient of braking failure is 1. 354,and the regression coefficients of the steering failure,the loss of power and other failures respectively are- 0. 853,- 2. 387 and- 4. 118. It shows that there is a large probability of serious accidents of braking failure,and the other 3 categories of mechanical failures are relatively small.