基于EKC模型的山东省森林资源变化与人均GDP关系分析

Analysis on the Relationship between the Change of Forest Resources and Per Capita GDP in Shandong Province Based EKC Model

以山东省森林资源为研究对象,以第八次全国森林资源连续清查山东省调查结果为基础,运用库兹涅茨基本模型,对山东省森林资源变化与人均GDP之间的关系进行研究,同时分析了人均GDP变化对森林资源影响的滞后性。研究结果表明:森林覆盖率和森林蓄积量与人均GDP的复相关系数均大于0.9,说明森林资源变化情况和人均GDP存在相关关系,相关性较强;森林蓄积量、森林覆盖率对人均GDP的响应均存在不同程度的滞后效应,森林覆盖率的滞后年份为2年,森林蓄积量的滞后年份为7年。该研究结果可为山东省林业政策制定提供参考依据。

Based on the forest resource in Shandong province and Environmental Kuznets Curve,the relationship between the forest coverage rate,forest growing stock and the real GDP per capita is analyzed in the paper. Meanwhile,the hysteresis effect of the influence of the real GDP per capita to forest resource was analyzed. The results shown there exist correlativity between the change of forest resource and economic development level. The multiple correlation coefficients between forest coverage rate,forest growing stock and per capita GDP were greater than 0. 9,which mean there exist good relativity between them. And the hysteresis effect exists in different degree for the two explained variable,2 years in the lag for forest coverage rate,and 7 years in the lag for the forest volume. The research can provide reference for the development of forestry policy in Shandong province.