山东省公路运输与经济发展关系研究

Research on the Relationship Between Road Transportation and Economic Development in Shandong Province

以1978~2014年为样本区间,采用时间序列等方法对山东省公路运输与经济发展关系进行研究。通过对山东省GDP与公路运输各指标分别进行协整检验及格兰杰因果检验得出,除汽车保有量外,其他指标与经济发展间存在长期均衡关系。此外各指标与经济发展间均存在格兰杰因果关系;通过公路运输各指标整体与山东省GDP建立VEC模型并进行协整检验发现,公路运输与经济发展存在唯一的均衡关系。

In this paper, selected Shandong province as an example, and will a sample of 1978 ~2014 range, by adopted the method of time series to study the relationship between highway transportation and economic development in Shandong province. Analysised the Shandong province GDP and highway transportation each index respectively by co-integration test and granger causality test between the two variables, come to the conclusion, that in addition to car ownership, other indicators and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic development, and there are granger causality between each index and economic development relationship;by created the VEC model and co-integration test between road transport the whole index and GDP of Shandong province, there is a unique equilibrium relationship of highway transportation and economic development.