网络舆情衍生链的定量分析方法研究

Research on the Quantitative Analytical Method of Network Public Opinion Derivative Chain

网络舆情在演变过程中由于信息开放式、爆炸式的传播特点极易引发链式效应,其给社会带来的二次影响往往超过初始舆情本身。因此,对舆情衍生链的预警预测有利于政府及时掌握舆情主动权,优化舆情管理流程。本文根据网络舆情衍生的共性规律,归纳出三种基本的衍生链结构类型并给出了对应的衍生概率算法,最后列出了网络舆情衍生链定量分析的可操作步骤,以期丰富网络舆情定量研究成果,为政府科学治理网络空间提供有益思路。

Due to the open and explosive spread characteristics of information, network public opinion is easy to trigger a chain effect during its evolution process, which the secondary effect to the society tend to be more than the initial public opinion itself. Therefore, the early warning and forecast of public opinion derivative chain is advantageous to the govern- ment to grasp the initiative of public opinion, and to optimize public opinion management process. According to the general law of network derived public opinion, this paper summing up three basic derivative chain structure types and its corresponding probability algorithm, and finally lists the operational steps of the quantitative analysis of network public opinion derivative chain, in order to enrich the quantitative research results of network public opinion, and provide some useful ideas of the scientific governance of network space for the government.