《条件推理的条件概率模型》的新进展

Conditional Reasoning: The Comparison between the Two Experimental Research Approaches of “Deduction”and “Probability”

推理心理学中的任何重要的理论模型在提出后都有一个不断修订和完善的发展过程。Oaksford等为了解释他们在"Wason四卡片选择任务"的实验研究结果,于1994年提出了"最佳数据选择模型";2000年将这一模型扩展为"条件推理的条件概率模型"用于解释人类进行条件推理的心理加工机制;2007年又将这一模型做了新的修订。本文拟对这一模型新进展的内涵介绍给我国对推理心理学研究领域有兴趣的研究者。

Any important theory in human reasoning research field as its own development process. Oaksford and his colleagues propose ＂The optimal data selection model＂ based on their experiment research for ＂The four cards selection task＂ in 1994. In 2000, the model has been revised into ＂The conditional probability model of conditional reasoning＂ to explain human＇ s conditional reasoning by the au- thors, and a new revision of the model has been made again in 2007. This paper will give a detail introduction to the new revision of the model.