宏观税负对消费率动态效应的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Dynamic Effect of the Macro Tax Burden on Consumption Rate

文章采用增值税、消费税、个人所得税、GDP、社会消费品零售额的2005年第1季度至2015年第3季度数据,运用向量误差修正VEC模型的脉冲响应及方差分解进行分析,观察以上各税种的宏观税负变化对社会消费率的动态影响效应。研究发现消费税、个人所得税、增值税的宏观税负都与社会消费率呈负相关关系,即当出现宏观税负的正向冲击后,社会消费率都出现下降。从冲击的程度来看,增值税最强,个人所得税次之,消费税最弱。从冲击的解释力来看,依然是增值税最强,个人所得税次之,消费税最弱。从作用时间来看,消费税对消费率的影响是暂时的,而增值税、个人所得税对消费率的影响是持久的。

In this paper,we use the data of VAT,consumption tax,personal income tax,GDP,social consumer goods retail sales from the first quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2015,employing the VEC model’s impulse response and variance decomposition to analyze the dynamic effect of the macro tax burden on social consumption rates. The study shows that the macro tax burden of consumption tax,personal income tax,value-added tax is negatively correlated with social consumption rate. That is,when the positive effect of the macro tax burden comes,social consumption rates decline. From the viewpoint of impact extent,the value-added tax is the most powerful while personal income tax is weaker as well as consumption tax is the weakest. From the viewpoint of the impact of the explanatory power,the value-added tax remains the top power and personal income tax is weaker as well as consumption tax is the weakest. However,from the viewpoint of the time of action,the consumption tax affects consumption rate temporarily while the value-added tax and personal income tax have a long-term influence.