基于VAR模型的中国金融服务贸易国际竞争力研究

A Study on International Competitiveness of China's Financial Service Trade based on the VAR Model

长期以来,中国金融服务贸易一直处于逆差状态,国际竞争力较为低下。通过实证分析表明:外商直接投资、人力资本、服务业发展水平、收入水平、货物贸易出口额、金融服务贸易开放度等对金融服务贸易竞争力都会产生动态影响,其中外商直接投资和金融服务贸易开放度对金融服务贸易竞争力的冲击震荡较大。因此,政府在引资政策上应适度向金融服务业倾斜,加大对金融服务业的扶持力度,提高其利用外资的比重和质量,同时进一步扩大金融市场开放。

For a long time, China has a deficit in the financial service trade and its international competitive- ness is lower. Empirical analysis shows that ： the foreign direct investment, human capital, the level of development of service industry, per- income, the trade in goods export, the level of financial services trade openness were all have a dynamic impact on Chinese competitiveness of financial service trade, among them, the impact of the foreign direct investment and the level of financial services trade openness has the bigger shock. Therefore, the Government should give consideration to financial service industry in policy which aim to attract investment, reinforce the support degree of financial service industry, improve the scale and quality of foreign capital utilization, and further opening the monetary market.