“李约瑟难题”的地理-市场解答——评析陈平、姚洋、林毅夫、文贯中的探讨并提出全新思路

A Geography-Market Explanation for“Joseph Needham's puzzle”——A Review for Analysis of Chen Ping, Yang Yao, Lin Yifu and Wen Guanzhong and a New Thinking

李约瑟提出近代中国何以落后于欧洲的问题,陈平、姚洋、林毅夫、文贯中都试图做出解答,但由于未能把握解答问题的前提——近代西欧何以兴起,结果都很不成功。波斯坦、诺思阐明了西欧兴起的过程和原理:西欧特定的地理气候条件使得基本农产品的成本差额大并有广泛的水路运输(运费低廉),产品差额抵偿运输费用和交易成本后仍有可观盈利,激励人们致力于市场交易,农产品市场的发展又带动了制造业进步、技术革新、制度变革乃至社会转型。据此,中国未能自发转型,就应当是地理气候条件不利于农产品市场发展所致。本文根据中国地理气候条件和经济人选择原理阐明:中国地区间气候差异小导致农林牧渔基本产品的成本差额太小,无法抵偿运输费用和交易成本,导致基本农产品无法实现异地交易,农产品市场就长期处于狭小状态,于是像西欧那样由农产品市场发展所带动起来的制造业进步、技术革新、制度变革就都无从谈起,这就不可能向工商业社会自发转型。结果在西欧通过发展商品市场迅速崛起以后,中国也就大大落后于西欧了。

Joseph Needham asked why modern Chinalagged behind Europe; Chen Ping, Yang Yao, Lin Yifu failed to make the answer while not grasping the premise of Joseph Needham's puzzle——How did the Modern Western Europe rise.Potsdam and North clarify the procedures and principles of the rise of Western Europe: specific geographic and climatic conditions bring the'big product balance' among basic agricultural products and a wide range of waterway transportation(with low cost); After compensating 'transportation costs' and 'transaction costs', 'product balance' still has a considerable profit, inspiring people to commit to market transactions. The development of agricultural products markets leads to progress in manufacturing industry,technological innovation, institutional reform and the social transformation. Accordingly, China's failure in spontaneous transformation should be blamed on geographical and climatic conditions, which are not conducive to the development of agricultural products market.According to China's geographical and climatic conditions, the theory of Economic Man's choice, this paper states: Small differences of geographic condition among China result in small product differences among basic animal husbandry and fishery products, which can not compensate 'transportation costs' and 'transaction costs'. This results that basic agricultural products can not achieve off-site transactions, agricultural markets remain small in a long-term. Progress in manufacturing industry, technological innovation, institutional reform caused by the development of agricultural products market can not occur as that in Europe, making it impossible to spontaneous social and commercial transformation. The result is China lags far behind after Western Europe makes a rapid rise through the development of commodity markets.