工业增长率波动对我国消费与经济发展影响——基于HP滤波的计量分析

Analysis on the Influence of Industrial Growth Rate Fluctuation on China's Consumption And Economic Development-Quantitative Based on HP Filter

利用HP滤波方法定量分析了我国工业增长率波动状况,同时利用协整分析探讨了其与消费增长率和经济增长率之间的长期动态关系。研究发现,长周期内工业增长率波动过大,不利于我国消费发展和经济水平的提高。因此,在产业升级的过程中,要妥善处理工业经济调整速度,避免大幅波动对国民经济的消极影响。

In this paper, the HP filtering method is used to quantitatively analyze the fluctuation of China＇s industrial growth rate, and the long-term dynamic relationship between consumption growth rate and economic growth rate is discussed by using co integration analysis. The study found that the long period of industrial growth rate fluctuations is not conducive to the development of China＇s consumption and improve the economic level. Therefore, in the process of industrial upgrading, it is necessary to properly deal with the speed of adjustment of industrial economy, to avoid the negative impact of significant fluctuations on the national economy.