摘要
目的基于时间序列分析预测血液供应量。方法以北京市红十字血液中心的10年血液供应量为基础,应用SPSS统计软件,采用时间序列分析方法,寻找合适的预测供血量的分析方法和优化模型参数。结果时间序列分析中的自回归滑动平均混合模型(ARIMA)比较适合进行血液供应量的预测,模型参数优化结果 ARIMA(1.1.1)具有较好的拟合效果。拟合值与观察值吻合程度较高。结论可应用时间序列分析方法中的ARIMA对血液供应量进行预测,对于策略的制定、科学管理和理性决策有一定的帮助。
Objective To predict the future trend of blood supply based on 10-year data of Beijing Red Cross Blood Center.Methods The database was analyzed by using SPSS statistical software.Data sequence was stabilized by using the process of differencing.Suitable prediction analysis method and the optimal model parameters were explored and identified.Results In time series analysis autoregressive moving average mixing model（ARIMA）was suitable for prediction of blood supply,ARIMA（1.1.1）parameters of the model was fit for the purpose of analysis.Fit value was better agreed with the observed values.Conclusion The model proposed in this paper could predict the trend of blood supply effectively,which could be helpful to policy makers,scientific management and rational decision-making services.
出处
《北京医学》
CAS
2016年第6期606-609,共4页
Beijing Medical Journal
关键词
血库
血液供应
预测
时间序列分析
blood bank
blood supply
forecast
time series analysis
