水稻农业气候资源变化特征及影响分析——以江苏稻区为例

Variation Characteristics and Impact of Agricultural Climate Resources of Single-season Rice——Taking Jiangsu Rice Production Area as an Example

为了合理利用气候变暖背景下的农业气候资源,减缓和适应气候变化带来的不利影响,以江苏稻区为例,利用全省60个气象台站1961—2012年气象观测资料,应用估算模型和统计方法,评估了一季稻全生育期内农业气候资源的变化趋势以及对一季稻生长的影响。结果表明:1961—2012年,太阳总辐射在逐年代递减,苏北、苏中、苏南的下降速率分别为65 MJ/(m2·10 a)、43 MJ/(m2·10 a)、52 MJ/(m2·10 a),光资源的下降不利于一季稻的光合作用;2000年前后为苏中和苏南≥10℃年活动积温的突变点,21世纪后热量资源增加显著;日均气温稳定通过10℃的初日在逐年代提前、终日在逐年代推迟,使得一季稻旺盛分蘖期提前、安全齐穗期推迟;水分资源没有明显变化趋势,总体充足。因此,近52年,江苏农业气候资源总体呈现光能资源减少、热量资源增加、水分资源充足,气候变化的影响利弊并存。

In order to make use of the agricultural climatic resources under the background of climate warming,as well as mitigate and adapt to the adverse effects caused by climate change, the authors carried out the study.By taking the rice production area in Jiangsu Province as an example, using observation data from 60 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2012, and adopting the estimation model and statistical method, theauthors analyzed the changing trend and influence of agricultural climate resources in the whole growth periodof single-season rice. The results showed that from 1961 to 2012, in the whole growth period of single-seasonrice, total solar radiation declined by decade. The declining rates of northern, central and southern area ofJiangsu were 65 MJ/（m2·10 a）, 43 MJ/（m2·10 a）, 52 MJ/（m2·10 a）, respectively. The declining of light resourcewas unfavorable for photosynthesis of single-season rice. There was a significantly warming mutation of theactive accumulated temperature≥10℃around 2000 in central and southern area of Jiangsu, meaning that heat resources was increasing significantly in the 21 stcentury. The beginning date of daily temperature stabilitythrough 10℃ was advanced, while the ending date was delayed. During the whole growth period, precipitationwas overall adequate, having no significantly changing trend. Therefore, in 1961-2012, the agriculturalclimatic resources in Jiangsu showed a reducing trend in radiation resources, an increasing trend in heatresources, while the water resources were abundant. As a result, the climate change had both advantages anddisadvantages.