人民币汇率升值对中国粮食安全影响的一般均衡金融模型分析

Impact of Appreciation of RMB Exchange Rate on Chinese Food Security Based on CGE Financial Model

通过构建一般均衡金融模型,分析了汇率变化对中国粮食安全的影响。模拟结果显示,现有中国经济增长条件下,人民币升值5%、10%、20%,对中国经济增长产生了较为持久的负面影响。与工业部门一样,人民币升值对农业部门也产生了产出、就业、投资及产出价格下降的严重影响,这种影响关系到农产品生产和供给,与中国的粮食安全息息相关,自2005年以来,人民币实际升值22%,过去的几年中,除粮食生产外,中国农产品生产遭受诸多价格风险,理论上,隐藏在农产品价格风险背后的因素,人民币升值有一定的作用。所以,人民币升值进程中,必须密切关注中国的农产品生产特别是粮食生产的安全。

This paper analyzed the Impact of RMB exchange rate changes on Chinese Food Security based onChina general equilibrium financial model. The results show that Under existing conditions of China＇seconomic growth, RMB appreciation of 5%, 10%, 20%, China＇s economic will suffer relatively long-lastingnegative results. Same as the industrial sectors, RMB appreciation also generated seriously negative impact tothe agriculture sector, such as decrease of product output, employment, investment and output prices. Itendanger agricultural production and supply, has closely relationship with China＇s food security. In fact, since2005, 22 percent of real appreciation of RMB has implemented. Over the past few years, in addition to grainproduction, China＇s agricultural production suffered a lot of price risk, in theory, behind the price risk, May bethe result of the appreciation of RMB, Therefore, in the RMB appreciation process, we must pay close attentionto China＇s agricultural production, especially grain production safety.