国际粮食价格影响因素实证分析

Analysis on Influencing Factors of International Food Price

利用1964～2014年数据实证分析国际粮食价格的影响因素。通过协整检验，认为国际粮食价格与世界农业生产率、世界粮食超额供给量、世界粮食库存量、国际原油价格、美元有效汇率间存在协整关系。国际粮食价格受到世界农业生产率、世界粮食超额供给量、世界粮食库存量和美元有效汇率显著负向影响；受到世界石油价格显著正向影响。从误差修正模型结果看，各变量及误差修正项系数的统计检验不显著，表明变量间只存在长期趋势关系，无短期调整。可能与采用年度数据而非跨度较小的月度数据或周数据有关。提高农业生产效率、增加世界粮食产量是稳定国际粮食价格的关键举措。通过分析世界粮食消费量和美元汇率变动情况，预判国际粮食价格走向，提早采取措施保障粮食安全。

The paper analyzes influencing factors of the international food price by using the data from 1964 to 2014. There is cointegration relationship among the international food price, world agricultural productivity, world food excessive supply, food inventory, international oil price, and the exchange rate of dollar. The world agricultural productivity, world food the amount of excessive supply, world food stock and the exchange rate of dollar had significantly negative effects on the international food price. The international oil price had significantly positive impact on the international food price. But from the results of the error correction model, the statistical test of the coefficient of the variable and the error correction factor was not significant, which indicated that there was only a long-term trend of the relationship between the variables, and no short-term adjustment. This might be related to the data which used in the paper were annual data rather than the small span of the monthly data or weekly data. To improve the agricultural productivity, increase food production was the key measure to stabilize the international food prices. Through the analysis of the world food consumption and the change of the dollar exchange rate, the trend of international food prices could be predicted, and measures to ensure food security were took in advance.