我国羊肉供需现状及趋势分析

Analysis on Current Situation and Trend of Mutton Supply and Demand in China

我国是羊肉消费和生产大国,羊肉供求状况变化关乎羊肉生产者和消费者切身利益,对羊产业可持续发展、农业结构调整具有重要意义。在分析我国羊肉供给、需求和供需平衡状况基础上,分析影响我国羊肉供需因素,结合前人研究成果分析我国羊肉供需趋势。结果表明,我国羊出栏总量稳定增长,区域化生产优势突出;羊肉产量不断增加,增长速度逐渐放缓;羊肉贸易以进口为主,净进口数量不断上涨;羊肉需求总量总体呈不断上升趋势;羊肉供需缺口不断扩大;未来我国羊肉消费增速将继续提高、羊肉需求总量将不断增加,而羊肉国内生产受众多因素影响将难以达到预期目标;羊肉的国内供给愈发趋紧,我国羊肉市场供求面临的主要问题是如何发展羊肉生产,促进市场平衡,保障居民消费需求。

China was the biggest mutton consumption and production country of the world. Changes in supply and demand of mutton were not only related to the vital interests of producers and consumers, but also meaningful to the sustainable development of sheep industry, the adjustment of agricultural structure and the protection of national food safety. This paper analyzed factors which affected the supply and demand of mutton in China. Then, the supply and demand trend of mutton in China was analyzed. The results showed that China＇s total slaughter sheep grew steadily. Advantage of regional production was prominent. Mutton production continued to increase, but the growth rate gradually slowed down. The quantity of mutton imports was greater than the amount of export, and the number of net imports was rising. The overall trend of the total demand for mutton was rising. Mutton supply and demand gap continued to expand. In the future, the growth rate of mutton consumption continued to increase, the total amount of mutton demand would continue to increase, while domestic production would be difficult to achieve the expected production target due to the influences of various factors. The domestic supply of mutton was increasingly tight, and gaps in the market would continue to expand. So the main problem of mutton market was how to develop mutton production and promote the market balance.