2016年国内小麦市场形势分析及展望

Domestic Wheat Market Situation and Prospects in 2016

在"去库存、调结构、降产能"的大背景下,2016年国内小麦产业发展更是举步维艰。从生产形势看,冬小麦生长过程中遭受了低温、倒春寒、连阴雨、赤霉病等,导致局部地区新麦产量、质量或将出现"双下降";从面粉加工看,终端消费低迷、麸皮价格大幅下降、原粮采购成本高且难度大等等,使得制粉企业亏损压力较大,开工率整体保持偏低水平,部分中小型面粉企业被迫"洗牌出局";从购销环节看,托市收购长期占据市场主导,而2015年度小麦价格的过山车行情,导致许多贸易商"折戟沉沙",对新粮收购的态度趋于谨慎。时下,2016年产小麦收购即将拉开帷幕,尽管托市收购价格连续三年保持不变,但由于收购市场价格预计低开,大范围启动托市的可能性较大,后期小麦价格走势将继续维持"政策市"特征。

Under the background of ＂reduce the stock, adjust the structure, reduce production capacity＂ in 2016, the domestic wheat industry is difficult. From the production situation, during the growth of winter wheat that suffered from hypothermia, late spring, and even rain, scab, resulting in some areas new wheat yield, quality, or the ＂double down＂; From sight of flour processing, the consumer end depressed, bran prices declined, the cost of raw grain procurement became high and difficulty and so on, so that the milling companies faces loss pressure, the whole operating rate maintain to a low level, some small and medium enterprises were forced to flour ＂out＂; From purchasing and selling process, the grain support and procurement be in the lead for a long-term, and in 2015 annual wheat price shift greatly, leading heavy losses of many traders, whose attitude of the new grain acquisitions becoming more cautious. Nowadays, the wheat acquisition in 2016 will begin soon, although grain support and procurement remains unchanged for three years, but due to the acquisition of the market are expected to open in lower price, more likely to start grain support and procurement in a large scale, wheat prices will continue to maintain ＂policy market＂ characteristics.