吉林省经济增长与城市化响应的实证研究

An empirical study on the response relationship between economic growth and urbanization in Jilin province

经济增长和城市化之间是否具有响应关系,是促进经济增长和推动城市化发展的理论前提。采用协整模型和格兰杰因果关系检验法,对吉林省1972—2013年人均GDP和城市化的响应关系进行实证研究。结果表明,吉林省经济增长和城市化之间存在双向互动关系,城市化对经济增长的促进作用要强于经济增长对城市化的推动作用。但是,吉林省经济增长在近两年呈下行之势,城市化速度较为缓慢,这种互动作用将趋缓甚至消失。吉林省应培育新的经济增长点,重新形成经济增长和城市化的互动之势。

Whether there is a response relationship between economic growth and urbanization or not is the theoretical premise to promote the economic growth and the development of urbanization. Using granger causality test and cointegration model, we conduct an empirical study on the response relationship between per capita GDP and urbanization of Jilin province from 1972 to 2013. The results show that there is an interactive relationship between economic growth and urbanization in Jilin province, and that the role of urbanization in promoting economic growth is stronger than that of economic growth in boosting urbanization. However, the economic growth of Jilin province in recent 2 years showed a downward trend, and the speed of urbanization is slower, which means this interaction will be slowed down or even disappear. So new points of economic growth should be cultivated, re-forming the interaction of economic growth and urbanization again.