基于向量误差修正模型的我国科技投入、产出关系评价

Evaluation of Technology Input and Output Relationship in China Based on the Vector Error Correction Model

基于1987-2012年技术市场成交额、专利授权量、财政科技投入的时间序列数据,采用协整理论和向量误差修正模型,分析了我国目前科技投入与产出的数量关系。结果表明:我国技术市场成交额、专利授权量、财政科技投入之间存在长期均衡关系;增加财政科技投入有利于技术市场成交额、专利授权量的提高;专利到技术市场的转化具有一定的滞后性;技术市场成交额短期内有助于专利授权量提高,但长期看有一定的负面影响。

The quantity relaionship of technology input and output in China is analyzed based on the cointegration theory and vector error correction model.The related time series datas including transaction value in technical market,number of patent applications granted and finance for technological input from 1987 to 2012are used in this paper.The result shows that there have long term equilibrium relaionship between them.The increase of finance for technological input can improve the level of transaction value in technical market and number of patent applications granted in the long run.The patent transform to technical market has lag period and the level is low.The transaction value in technical market can improve the number of patent applications granted in the short run,but in the long run,there has small negative effect.