供水管网爆管风险评估模型研究

Burst risk assessment model for water supply networks

以ZZ市的供水管网数据为例,对城市供水管网的爆管事故规律及原因进行分析,并采用供水管道生存分析结合管网爆管风险性的方法,建立了城市供水管网爆管风险评估模型。将此模型应用于ZZ市供水管网,对该市管网进行爆管风险评估,得到管网爆管风险分布情况,为管网日常维护和预防爆管提供了理论指导。

This paper exemplifies the water supply networks of ZZ city to build the burst risk assessment model by analyzing the cause and rules of burst events and applying the combination of survival analysis and burst hazard.Then the distribution of burst risk of the water supply networks in ZZ city is obtained when evaluated by burst risk assessment model,which provides the water company theoretical guidance for the daily maintenance and prevention of pipe burst.