泉州市山美水库水资源风险管理研究

Risk management of water resources in the case for Shanmei Reservoir in Quanzhou City

本研究以泉州市山美水库为研究对象,考虑来水和需水等不确定性因素对水库水资源风险管理的影响,基于供用水系统风险理论计算出旬尺度的山美水库最下限库水位线,提出山美水库水资源风险管理方案,并与实际水位调控进行对比分析.结果显示:山美水库现状库水位全年维持在较高的水平,可结合本次计算得到的山美水库水资源风险管理方案适当降低现状库水位,随着未来综合需水量的增加再考虑逐步抬高库水位,从而提高山美水库综合利用效益.

Shanmei Reservoir in Quanzhou City was studied.To evaluate the risk of water supply-demand system,reasonable controlled range of water level in Shanmei Reservoir was estimated on a ten-day scale during water-supply period of the reservoir.Various solutions for water resources risk management were proposed considering the uncertainty of runoff and water demand.It was found that water level in Shanmei Reservoir remained relatively high all year round in recent past.It is suggested that water level could be lowered.With enhanced economic development in the future,water level could then be gradually increased to meet new water use demands and improve comprehensive benefits of the reservoir.