产业结构优化增加了大学生就业难度吗?——基于ARDL模型的实证分析

Does Industrial Structure Optimization Increase the Students' Employment Difficulty?——An empirical analysis based on ARDL model

近年来,在经济转型和大学扩招等因素的影响下,我国大学生就业难的问题日益严重.大学生群体在我国劳动力市场中的比重越来越大,解决大学生就业问题关系我国经济的持续发展.首先构建了衡量大学生就业难的评价指数,接着运用ARDL模型分析我国产业结构升级下的大学生就业难程度的演变过程.研究发现:1)第三产业贡献率对大学生就业难的评价指数具有显著的短期一阶滞后影响.当第三产业贡献率变动1%时,下一年大学生就业难的评价指数变动0.438%的单位.2)在短期内,大学生就业难的评价指数对其自身的影响在滞后1期和滞后4期时是显著的,其中滞后1期的影响是正的,而滞后4期的影响是负的.3)第三产业贡献率对大学生就业难的评价指数不具备显著的长期影响.4)根据误差修正项可以看出,当大学生就业难的评价指数受到短期冲击后,会在下一年得到23.1%的修正.最后,依据研究结果从大学生自身、高校和政府三个方面对促进大学生就业提供了相应政策建议.

In recent years, with the impact of economic restructuring and university enrollmerit and other factors, the employment difficulty of college students has become increasingly serious. The proportion of college students in Chinese labor market is growing, and solving this problem can promote Chinese continuous economic development. This paper sets up a students＇ employment difficulty index, then analyses the evolution of employment difficulty in the background of industrial restructuring by using the ARDL model. And the results show： （1） The contribution rate of tertiary industry has significant short-term impact on the employment difficulty index at lag 1. If the contribution rate of tertiary industry changes 1%, the employment difficulty index will change 0.438% in the next year. （2） In the short term, employment difficulty index has a significant positive impact on itself at lag 1, while it has a significant negative impact on itself at lag 4. （3） The contribution rate of tertiary industry does not have a significant long-term impact for employment difficulty. （4） According to the error correction term, when the employment difficulty index was short-term impacted, it will get 23.1% of the correction in the next year. Finally, according to the results of this study, this paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations to promote the students＇ employment from the perspective of students themselves, universities and government.