基于主成分-灰色关联度的城市暴雨灾害应对能力评价:以江苏省13个地级城市为例

Research on Urban Rainstorm Disaster Response Capacity Assessment:A case study of 13 prefectural-level cities of Jiangsu province

对城市暴雨灾害应对能力进行评价是城市暴雨灾害管理的重要手段.以江苏省13个地级城市为研究对象,基于2010-2013年的面板数据,综合运用主成分与灰色关联度相结合的分析方法,从日常防御、灾前预警、灾中应急和灾后恢复4个方面评价江苏省城市暴雨灾害应对能力.研究发现,江苏省城市暴雨灾害应对能力整体水平逐年提升,但是扬州和泰州小幅波动并略有下降;全省城市暴雨灾害应对能力具有明显的空间分布特征,呈现出由南向北能力递减的演变趋势.研究表明,该方法切实有效地解决了城市暴雨灾害应对能力的评估问题.

Assessment of capacity to response rainstorm disaster is a very important means of urban rainstorm disaster management. Based on Panel data of 13 prefectural-level cities of Jiangsu province from 2010 to 2013, principal component method and grey correlation degree method are integrated to research the urban rainstorm disaster response capacity from daily defense, pre-disaster warning, disaster emergency and post-disaster restoration four respects. The results show that the overall level of urban rainstorm disaster response capacity of Jiangsu province increased year by year, but Yangzhou and Taizhou decreased with a slight fluctuation. The capacity to response urban rainstorm disaster of Jiangsu province has obvious spatial distribution characteristic which presents the capacity decreased progressively from south to north. The research shows that this method solves the problem about assessment of urban rainstorm disaster response capacity effectively.