甘肃省产业结构的时空分异及其动力机制研究

Spatial difference of industrial structure and mechanisms of Gansu Province

运用传统统计分析与ESDA、OLS、GWR等模型分析方法,基于2000-2013年甘肃省县域经济数据对其产业结构差异及变动进行了时空比较分析。结果表明:时间分异方面,甘肃省县域产业结构的绝对和相对差异均呈现缓慢下降趋势;空间分异全局方面,甘肃省县域产业结构水平呈现西高东低、北高南低的趋势,各县产业结构差异性及集聚性显著增强;空间分异局部方面,热点区域分布由2000年的酒泉、兰州向甘肃的西北及东北部扩展,到2013年形成酒嘉地区、兰州和庆阳三个核心的热点地区,基本呈现出自西北向东南的"热点-次热点-冷点-次冷点"带状分布格局。此外,通过OLS、GWR两种模型对比分析,发现后者更能深刻揭示产业结构与各空间因子之间的相互关系,并进一步采用GWR模型对甘肃省产业结构演变的影响因素予以分析。最后,通过相关结论的分析与思考,以期为甘肃省产业结构优化升级提供重要的决策依据。

By taking the counties of Gansu Province, northwest China as a case, this paper mainly used the ESDA model, OLS model and GWR model to analyze the temporal-spatial differences and changes of the industrial structure for 87 counties from 2000 to 2013. The results showed as follows：（1） From the temporal respective, both the absolute and relative difference of industrial structure of counties presented ＂slow down＂ trend in Gansu Province, and the decline rate of relative difference was more rapid than that of the absolute difference.（2） From the spatial respective, with the ArcGIS trend analysis tool, it was found that the industrial development had a tendency of higher in the west and north, lower in the east and south. Besides, the calculate results of Moran＇s I showed that the spatial clustering of the industrial structure of Gansu Province is increasing.（3） Since 2000, the hot areas mainly distributed intensively in Jiuquan and Lanzhou cities, then extended to the northwest and northeast of Gansu Province. Lately, three hot areas of Jiuquan-Jiayuguan, Lanzhou and Qingyang formed in 2013. The distribution of cold and hot spots showed an obvious zonal distribution pattern of ＂hot spots, sub-hot spots, cold spots, sub-cold spots＂ from northwest to southeast.（4） Finally, this paper analyzed the dynamic mechanism of industrial structure evolution with the method of GWR. Among the influencing factors, only government intervention effect generally had a negative influence on the industrial structure evolution, while the other impact factors had robust and positive impacts, such as economy level, investment level, consumption level, technology level, urbanization level. Raising the overall level of government intervention should be an effective way to improve industrial structure. This paper could be helpful for reference to optimize the industrial structure and promote the fair and coordinated development among counties of Gansu Province.