北京城区旅游气候变化及风险分析

Assessment for tourism climate and its risk for urban area of Beijing

考虑温度、湿度、降水、风速、日照要素构建旅游气候指数(TCI),利用信息扩散理论,构建旅游气候风险定量评估模型,并对北京城区旅游气候变化及风险进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)基于多气候要素的TCI可有效反映旅游气候对气候变化的响应,基于信息扩散模型(IDM)构建的旅游气候风险评估模型能有效分析单气候要素变化风险对旅游气候的影响,可为旅游气候风险评估提供新的途径。(2)1951-2014年,北京城区TCI持续升高,趋势线从1951年的Ⅲ级(65)升高到2014年Ⅱ级(73),平均增加1.17·(10 a)^(-1),且四季旅游舒适度呈上升趋势,双峰型旅游气候格局的峰区逐渐变宽,旅游气候持续改善,成为促进旅游业发展的有利因素。(3)低降水概率(p≤0.4)风险下,北京城区TCI介于45~71,仍处于可开展旅游活动的II^IV级,且随着时间推移,TCI呈增长趋势,降水对旅游气候的不利影响减弱。

The impact of climate change on tourism climate comfort is a major problem for the sustainable development of tourism. Based on climate factors including temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and sunshine, this paper built the tourism climate index （TCI） to describe tourism climate comfort in Beijing, and then conducted a risk analysis of the tourism climate change （only considering precipitation factor） by using the information diffusion model （IDM） to evaluate the impact of precipitation at different levels on tourism climate comfort. Results show as follows：（1） the multi-climate-factor based index TCI can effectively reflect the response of tourism climate comfort to climate change, and the tourism climate risk assessment model based on IDM can effectively analyze the influence of a single factor on tourism climate comfort.（2） From 1951 to 2014, the tourism climate comfort in Beijing continued to rise and two comfortable times in a year of tourism activities extended along with the continuous increasing TCI, of which the trend line increased from level Ⅲ （65） in 1951 to level Ⅱ （73） in 2014, with an average increase rate of 1.17·（10 a）^-1. The continuous improvement of tourism climate comfort has become the main factor to accelerate tourism development.（3） Under the risk of low precipitation probability, TCI in Beijing ranged from 45 to 71, which indicated Beijing was still in level Ⅱ to level Ⅲ that could develop tourism activities. And with the increase of TCI, the risk of low precipitation probability to tourism climate comfort has gradually decreased. In this paper, only average monthly precipitation was considered to the influence on tourism climate. What＇s more, the precipitation concentration ratio, especially a multi-factor based analysis are very necessary for exactly assessing tourism climate comfort and making effective countermeasures to climate change.