中国社会保障发展空间差距及随机收敛研究

Research on Spatial Disequilibrium and Stochastic Convergence of China's Social Security Development

本文运用2001-2013年中国社会保障支出数据考察了社会保障发展空间差距及其随机收敛特征,实证表明:样本考察期内,中国人均社会保障支出快速增长,但存在一定的空间差距,西部地区的人均社会保障支出高于东中部地区;中国社会保障发展的空间差距呈先缩小后扩大的趋势,东部地区社会保障发展空间差距高于中西部地区,东部和西部地区间社会保障差距高于东部和中部、中部和西部;社会保险发展的空间差距呈先缩小后扩大趋势,社会优抚、社会救济发展空间差距比较平稳,社会福利空间差距呈缩小趋势;中国社会保障发展相对于全国均值呈随机发散,东西部地区社会保障相对于区域均值呈随机发散,中部地区只有部分省份社会保障相对于区域均值呈随机收敛。

Using the data of China＇s social security during 2003-2013, this paper studies the spatial disequilibrium and stochastic convergence of China＇s social security development, and the result shows that the expenditure of social security develops rapidly, but there is a space gap during the sample investigation period, the per capita expenditure of western region is higher than that in the eastern and central regions. The spatial disequilibrium of China＇s social security development presents narrowed after widening, the spatial disequilibrium of eastern region is higher than the central and western regions, and the spatial disequilibrium between the east- em region and western region is higher than that between the eastern and central region and that between central and western region. The spatial disequilibrium of social insurance development also presents narrowed after widening, the spatial disequilibrium of social care and social relief is stable, and the spatial disequilibrium of social welfare is narrowed. The development of China＇s social security presents divergence, and the development of eastern and central regions also presents divergence, only some provinces of central region presents stochastic convergence.