营业税改增值税对CPI影响的实证分析——基于上海市“营改增”的样本分析

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Chinese VAT Reform upon CPI——Based on the Sample of Shanghai

2015年是我国税制改革的关键年份,继交通运输业、现代服务业、电信业完成"营改增"之后,我国先后在房地产业、建筑业、金融业和生活服务等行业推进"营改增"改革。自2016年5月1日起,我国将全面推开"营改增"试点。营业税、增值税影响宏观经济指标CPI的作用机制是什么?"营改增"会对宏观经济指标CPI带来什么样的效应?这是理论和实践层面急需解决的问题。本文对我国1995-2014年间增值税、营业税和CPI的相关数据建立多元线性回归模型,分析增值税、营业税与CPI之间的影响关系。结果表明:增值税、营业税对CPI的影响关系显著,其弹性分别-0.3712、1.0330。进一步以上海市"营改增"改革试点前后的相关数据进行实证分析,结果表明"营改增"试点改革对上海市CPI有一定影响,但是影响程度较小。

The year 2015 is a key point for China＇s taxation reform. Since the reform of ＂replacing business tax with VAT＂ was completed in the field of transportation industry, modern service industry and telecommunication industry, our country propels the reform in real estate, construction industry, financial industry and consumer service industry successively. Our country will implement the pilot to replace business tax with VAT since May 1, 2016. What＇s the impact mechanism of the business tax and VAT upon CPI？ How will the VAT reform influence CPI？ By establishing a multiple linear regression model with the data of China＇s value-added tax, business tax and CPI from year 1995 to 2014, this article intends to discuss the relationship between them. Conclusion shows that the effects of value-added tax and business tax upon CPI are significant, and the elasticity is -0.3712 and 1.0330 respectively. Besides, the article analyzes the related data of Shanghai before and after the VAT pilot reform. The result indicates that the VAT pilot reform has less effect on the CPI of Shanghai.