2003—2013年中国粮食增产格局及其贡献因素研究

Study on the Spatiotemporal Patterns and Contribution Factors of Chinas Grain Output Increase during 2003-2013

国家粮食安全是关乎国计民生的重要问题。2003—2013年我国粮食生产实现"十连增"乃至2015年"十二连增",世人瞩目。论文以分省为基本单元,采用粮食作物的播种面积、产量、单产等数据,从全国和分省两个尺度,定量分析了2003—2013年我国粮食增产状况及其区域差异,全面探讨了我国粮食增产的地域格局及其贡献因素。研究表明:1)全国粮食"十连增"主要得益于稻谷、小麦和玉米等三大粮食作物的增产,且由于期间其他作物的减产,三大粮食作物增产贡献率达到105.73%;2)三大粮食作物中,玉米增产最为明显,无论在增产幅度、贡献率、增产速率还是增产区域角度均高于小麦和稻谷;3)单产提升对全国粮食"十连增"的贡献大于播种面积的扩大;4)分作物而言,玉米和稻谷增产主要得益于播种面积扩大,小麦则主要是单产提升;5)从省级角度看,近10 a我国绝大多数省份粮食均出现增产,但是粮食增产的主力依然集中在传统的粮食生产大省和西北的甘肃、新疆二省。

National grain security plays a critical role in national economy and the people s livehood. In 2003- 2013, China had achieved ten- year consecutive grain production increase that had never appeared in history and attracted a great deal of attention in the worldwide. Till2015, the grain production has been experienced by the twelve-year consecutive increase. The purpose of this paper is to detect the spatiotemporal patterns and the main contributions of the ten-year consecutive grain production increase from 2003 to 2013. Based on factors contributions analysis and GIS, this paper analyzes the situation and spatiotemporal differences of grain output growth at the national level and the provincial level, with the data of planted area and yield per unit area. The spatiotemporal patterns and the main contribution factors of China s grain output increase were discussed at the multiple- levels including provincial level and national level. The results showed that： 1） the output growth of rice, wheat and maize（which are called＂three major grain crops＂） were the main reason of the grain output growth at the national level, whose contribution rate in the total grain output growth was 105.73% due to the decrease of other grain crops such as soybean, broomcorn, millet, etc; 2） maize was the biggest contributor in three major grain crops in 2003- 2013, whether the rate of increase（88.63%）,contribution rate of grain output growth（56.70%）, the speed of incresase（1 026.59×104t/a） or the universality（29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions） of grain output growth,rice was the second, and wheat was the last; 3） at the national scale, the grain output growth caused by the promotion of yield per unit area accounted for 64.50%, which was more than that caused by the expansion of planted area（35.50%）; 4） as to the crops, the output growth of rice and maize relied on the expansion of planted area, and the contribution rate of planted area was56.59% and 64.83% respectively, whereas the output growth of wheat relied on the increase of yield per unit area which has the contribution rate of 73.21%; and 5） the grain output growth appeared in most of provinces during the 10 years, and the provinces in Northeast China, North China, the Huang- Huai- Hai Plain, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River had more significant increase. In general, the main regions with ten- year consecutive grain production increase were the Northeast China Plain, the Huang- Huai- Hai Plain and Xinjiang. The expansion of planted area and the increase of yield per unit area were both significant contribution factors to the grain output growth in 2003-2013, whereas the role of yield per unit area was more obvious.