黄河流域内蒙古段1951—2012年气温、降水变化及其关系

Variations and Periodic Symmetry of Temperature and Precipitation in Inner Mongolia Section of the Yellow River Basin during 1951-2012

黄河流域内蒙古段是内蒙古自治区重要的经济发展区,研究其气候因子变化对流域水资源、区域经济社会发展及生态环境保护有重要意义。论文利用研究区及其周边地区52个气象站点1951—2012年气温与降水量资料,采用回归分析、年代均值比较、5 a滑动、气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall检验等方法,对气温与降水变化及其关系进行了分析。结果表明:近62 a来,研究区域平均气温、平均最高和最低气温均呈明显上升趋势(0.283℃/10 a、0.235℃/10 a、0.590℃/10 a),尤以20世纪90年代增温最为明显,冬季增长速率最快,对气温升高贡献最大。3类气温分别在1988、1989、1982年发生了突变,平均气温、平均最高气温突变时间均晚于平均最低气温。多年降水量年际变化较大,总体呈下降趋势(-1.48 mm/10 a),但下降幅度不明显。年降水量与平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温在20世纪80—90年代相关性较好,均呈上升趋势,而其他时期则呈阶段反对称变化。从季节上看,春季降水量与3类气温年值相关性最好;夏季降水量与3类气温的年际变化趋势类似;秋季降水量与3类气温呈阶段反对称性变化;冬季降水量与3类气温在20世纪90年代到21世纪呈反对称变化,其他年代则呈现一致的变化趋势。

The Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin is the important economy development zone of Inner Mongolia. The research on the changes of climatic factors has great significance on the water resource reservation, ecological environmental protection and local economic and social development in the basin. Based on the data of temperature and precipitation collected from 52 meteorological stations in the research area and the surrounding areas from 1951 to 2012, this thesis adopted the methods of regression analysis, comparison of annual average, 5-year moving average, climate tendency and Mann-Kendall test to analyze the variations of temperature and precipitation and their interrelationship. The results indicate that in recent 62 years the annual average temperature, the annual maximum average temperature and the annual minimum average temperature all show obvious rising trends （0.283 ℃/10 a, 0.235 ℃/10 a and 0.590 ℃/10 a）, especially in the 1990s. The temperature in winter increased most significantly, which contributed most to the warming effect. These three kinds of temperature experienced a mutation respectively in 1988, 1989 and 1982. There is great variation of the annual precipitation and it shows a declining tendency （-1.48 mm/10 a）, but the falling range is not big. The relationship of the average annual precipitation has good positive correlations with the average annual temperature, the annual average maximum temperature and the annual average minimum temperature in the 1980s and 1990s, while the relations showed antisymmetric change in other periods. From the seasonal perspective, the correlations between the seasonal precipitation and the seasonal average temperature, the seasonal average maximum temperature and the seasonal average minimum temperature in spring are the highest; the correlation of the precipitation and the temperature in summer is similar to the interannual variation; the trend of the precipitation is antisymmetric to the temperature in autumn; the trend of the precipitation and temperature in winter was antisymmetric from the 1990s and was consistent in other periods.