东盟区域经济一体化的经济增长效应分析:1996～2014年

Economic Growth Effect in Regional Economic Integration in ASEAN: 1996～2014

通过测算1996—2014年区域经济一体化对东盟整体及其成员国经济增长相关系数，可以发现区域经济一体化对东盟整体经济增长具有较强的正面效应，也就是说东盟区域经济一体化取得了较好的实际成效。但是，另一方面，东盟的区域经济一体化与成员国经济增长的关系并没有呈现出与发达程度的一致性，估计这与部分成员国的开放程度和产业结构趋同有关。

Based on the estimation of the correlation coefficient of the regional economic integration in the economic growth in ASEAN and its members from 1996 to 2014,we find that the regional economic integration has a stronger positive effect on the overall economic growth in ASEAN,which means that the regional economic integration in ASEAN has actually achieved better results. However,the relationship between regional economic integration and economic growth of its members doesn't present uniformity with the developed degree. It is estimated that it is related to the open degree and the convergence of industrial structure of some members.