中日出口结构测度及影响因素研究——基于出口复杂度角度

Measurement and Influencing Factors of Export Structure of China and Japan——Based on the Export Complexity

使用出口复杂度指数,利用1995年—2014年《标准国际贸易分类》三位码数据,从产品层面、产业层面及国家层面测度中日制造业产品出口结构,并通过岭回归解析两国出口复杂度影响因素。研究发现:在产品结构方面,中、日出口分别集中于中低、中高复杂度产品;在影响因素方面,人力资本、研发支出对中日均有显著影响,人口规模对两国均无显著影响,FDI与加工贸易对中国有显著正向影响,人均GDP对日本有显著正向影响。

Based on export complexity index, this paper compares the export structure of manufacturing products between China and Japan from the aspects of product, industry and country by using 3-digit trade data of Standard International Trade Classification from 1995 to 2014, and analyses the influencing factors of export complexity through ridge regression. The findings show that China＇s exports focus on low and medium complexity products while Japan＇s on medium and high complexity products in terms of products structure, that human capital, research and development expenditure have obvious significance on both countries while the population size has no obvious effects upon the two countries in terms of influencing factors, and that FDI and improvement trade have significant positive impacts on China, while per capita GDP has prominent and positive impacts upon Japan.