海上人命损失的时间和形态分布规律

The Time and Categorization Distribution Characteristics of Loss Life at Sea

基于MAIB数据库和某航企海员工伤数据库,通过"ARIMA"时间序列预测模型和"致死率"模型,对海上人命损失时间的分布特征和形态特征分析,发现海上人命损失随时间呈总体下降趋势,海员操作事故和疾病等导致的人命损失数量已经超过传统海上交通事故造成的生命损失数量。应将交通行为和操作行为一并纳入海上交通安全理论的研究范畴,改变以往通过预防海上交通事故达到减少海上人命损失的路径,建立以人命保护为核心的研究路径,实现海上人命安全保护的目的。

The time distribution, categorization distribution and characters are studied by the ARIMA module and mortality rate module with the MAIB database and an enterprise database. The historical data illustrated that the death ratios at sea had declined as time goes by. The death caused by the operation failure and illness are over exceeded than the death caused by the marine traffic accident. So it is necessary to take account of traffic behavior and operation behavior into the marine traffic safety theory. It will be very valuable to reduce the loss of life at sea.