干旱区绿洲规模适宜度评价——以于田绿洲为例

Study on the Suitability Evaluation of Oasis Scale in Arid Area——A Case Study of the Keriya Oasis

以绿洲自组织和可持续发展理论为指导,从人与自然协调发展的角度出发,建立绿洲规模适宜度评价指标体系.同时,根据于田县1980—2010年的统计数据,计算出于田绿洲经济、社会和生态环境三大子系统间的协调度指数,并据此对不同时期于田绿洲规模的适宜度作出评价.研究结果表明:(1)1980—1990年,于田绿洲经济、社会和生态环境三大子系统的协调度指数相对较高,绿洲的发展规模适宜;(2)1991—2000年,三大子系统的协调度指数相较于上一阶段有所下降.但是,其大部分数值仍处于0.6以上,绿洲的规模也较为适宜;(3)2001—2010年,三大子系统的协调度指数处于三个时期中最低水平,绿洲规模的适宜度也从2003年起由适宜转变为勉强适宜和不适宜.

Based on the theory of oasis self-organization and sustainable development, from the perspective of harmonious development between man and nature, we establish an oasis scale suitability evaluation index system. At the same time, according to the statistical data of Keriya County from 1980 to 2010, we figure out the coordination degree index for the three subgroups of economic, social and ecological environment system in Keriya Oasis. As a result, we evaluate the suitability of Keriya Oasis scale at different periods. Our research results show that from 1980 to 1990, coordination degree index of three major subsystems of Keriya oasis economic, social and ecological environment system is relatively high, and the scale of Keriya Oasis is appropriate. From 1991 to 2000, the coordination degree index of three subsystems decreased considerably. However, most of the numerical values are more than 0.6, suggesting that the size of the oasis is also appropriate. From 2001 to 2010, the coordination degree index of three subsystems is the lowest of the three stages, and the suitability of oasis scale is also changed from appropriate in 2003 into reluctantly appropriate and inappropriate.