浙江省茶叶气候生产潜力评估

Assessment on climatic potential productivity of tea in Zhejiang Province

根据浙江省65个基本气象站1971—2013年的气象资料和茶叶产量资料,采用逐步订正、线性趋势分析等方法研究了茶叶的光合生产潜力(Y_Q)、光温生产潜力(Y_T)和气候生产潜力(Y_W),及其时空变化特征、主要影响因素和气候资源利用率。结果表明:浙江省茶叶Y_Q、Y_T和Y_W多年平均值分别为15.17、11.27和8.39 t·hm^(-2);在空间分布上表现为Y_Q由南向北递增,Y_T由中部金华地区向四周递增,Y_W由北向南递增;近40年,Y_Q、Y_T和Y_W均呈下降趋势,气候倾向率分别为-0.15、-0.45和-0.40 t·hm^(-2)·10 a^(-1),受热量和水资源在气候变化背景下的显著变化影响,Y_T和Y_W下降趋势更为明显。近5年,浙江省茶叶气候资源利用率为1.73%~35.12%,平均为11.90%,高值区主要集中在杭州东部、绍兴、宁波、湖州南部和金华中部等地,超过20%。

Based on the meteorological data observed by 65 basic weather stations and statistical data of tea yield, the photosynthesis potential productivity （YQ）, photothermal potential productivity （YT）, and climatic potential productivity （YW） of tea in Zhejiang Province in the past 43 years were evaluated with successive correction analysis. The main factors influencing YW were explored by analyzing the spatial and temporal variation of potential productivity. The climate resource utilization （P） was also assessed by combining the YW with actual productivity （Ya）. The results showed that, in the past 40 years, the YQ of tea in Zhejiang Province was 15.17 t·hm^-2, with high value in north region and low value in the south region. The YT of tea was 11.27 t·hm^-2, increasing gradually from Jinhua to the surrounding areas. The YW of tea was 8.39 t·hm^-2, decreasing gradually from south to north. In the past 40 years, YQ, YT and YW all presented a decreased trend, with a climatic trend rate of -0.15, -0.45 and -0.40 t·hm^-2·10 a^-1, respectively. The variation speeds of YTand YWwere more significant than that of YQas the variation trend of heat and water resources was more obvious than that of solar radiation in the context of climate change. ThePof tea in Zhejiang Province was 1.73%-35.12% （with an average of 11.90%） from 2009 to 2013. High P （〉20%） was mainly distributed in the east of Hangzhou, Shaoxing, Ningbo, south of Huzhou, and middle of Jinhua.