基于多区域CGE模型的洪灾间接经济损失评估——以长三角流域为例

Assessment of Indirect Economic Loss of Flood Disaster Based on Multi-regional CGE Model:A Case of Yangtze River Delta Basin

全面分析洪灾对流域内各子行政区的经济损失可以为精准化灾害管理政策和防洪减灾措施的制定提供科学依据。本文以长江三角洲流域(简称长三角流域)为例,建立了长三角流域内多区域可计算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium,CGE)模型,深入分析了2011年长三角流域洪灾对流域内上海、浙江和江苏经济影响的空间和行业特征,并且构建间接影响系数来反映流域内不同区域和行业受洪灾的间接波及程度。结果表明:洪灾对长三角流域内3个省市经济冲击幅度明显不同,农业和房地产业是受到冲击最大的行业;从波及程度来看,上海受洪灾的间接影响波及程度要高于流域内江苏和浙江;食品制造加工业和纺织工业间接影响波及程度要高于其他行业。本文认为,多区域CGE模型不但能够定量化评估洪灾的对流域内经济的间接影响,并且可以细致地反映间接影响在流域内部的区域和行业特征。

A comprehensive analysis about economic loss of floods on various sub-administrative districts within the region can provide scientific basis for the development of accurate disaster management policy and flood mitigation measures.Taking the Yangtze River Delta（ the＂Yangtze Delta＂） as an example,the paper establishes a Computable General Equilibrium（ CGE） model,carries out an in-depth analysis on the space and industrial characteristics of economic impacts of floods in 2011 in the Yangtze Delta on Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang,meanwhile,an indirect impact factor is constructed to reflect the extent of indirect impacts of floods on different regions and sectors within the region.The results show that the extent of economic impacts of floods on such 3 provinces is significantly different,agriculture and real estate are the industries which receive the largest impacts,from the aspect of impact degree,the impact degree of flood on Shanghai is higher than that on Jiangsu and Zhejiang,while for the food manufacturing and processing industry and the textile industry,the impact degree is higher than that in other industries.This paper argues that the multi-regional CGE model is able to quantitatively assess the indirect impacts of flood on regional economy and what＇s more,it is able to accurately reflect the regional and industrial characteristics of such indirect impacts within the region.