分析现代绿洲扩张驱动力与绿洲生态风险管理研究——以新疆焉耆绿洲为例

Analysis of Driving Forces of Oasis Expansion and Ecological Risk Management——A Case Study of Yanqi Oasis of Xinjiang,China

西北干旱区是我国国土安全的重要生态屏障,必须妥善处理好西北干旱区绿洲化过程中农业生产和生态风险管理之间的关系。科学认识现代绿洲扩张的驱动力,有助于深刻理解绿洲土地利用变化的机理,为绿洲生态风险管理提供科学参考。本文运用Bio-economic模型,模拟了新疆绿洲核心区和绿洲荒漠过渡带在用水量增加、引进高效节水灌溉技术、强化水资源和土地资源管理三种情景下农户的土地利用行为决策,据此探讨现代绿洲扩张的驱动力。研究发现:正是由于水资源管理不严格,在农户追求利益最大化的利益驱动下,丰水年上游来水量的增加以及不断增加的地下水开采量,特别是高效灌溉技术推广后节约的灌溉水量,为绿洲过渡带开垦新的耕地提供了水源保障,致使绿洲耕地面积不断扩张,造成绿洲生态风险增大。因此,绿洲生态风险管理应当高度重视水土资源管理。

The northwestern arid region serves as an ecological guard for China＇s ecological security.It is very important to deal properly with the tradeoff between improving agricultural production capacity and ecological risk management in the arid region.This paper focuses on driving forces of oasis expansion,which may not only contribute comprehensive understanding of land use change mechanism,but also provide policy implication for oasis ecological risk management.A Bio-economic Model is developed to analyze the farmer households＇ land use behavior under different scenarios including increasing water supple,introducing advanced irrigation technology,implementing strictly water resource management and land reclamation in central region of the oasis and the desert-oasis transitional region.The results show that farmers＇ behavior for pursuing income maximization accelerated farmland expansion.Incomplete implementation of water resource management provided condition of water resource for farmland reclamation.Overuse of water resource,over-exploitation of groundwater and water saving caused by adopting advanced irrigation technology has been offset by the increased water use with farmland reclamation.The results indicate that oasis ecological risk management needs effective water resource management.