中国工业部门能源与非能源替代弹性研究——基于多弹性测度方法

Research of Energy and Non-energy Substitution for Industrial Sector——Based on Muti-elasticity Method

在能源供应受到较强约束下,能源与非能源要素替代的不确定性关系到我国能源效率改善、新能源开发以及应对气候变化的政策选择。文中以工业总体和36个分行业为研究对象,基于超对数成本函数,计算了1994-2011年间能源与非能源投入要素的自价格弹性、CPE、AES、MES以及SES弹性。结论显示:(1)资本、劳动力和能源的自价格弹性均为负值,其中能源自价格弹性最小,劳动力自价格弹性最大;(2)工业总体上,能源与资本均呈现替代关系,且历史波动趋势较为平稳;而能源与劳动力之间的关系除了在2011年表现不明朗外,其他年份均显示两者为替代关系;(3)四种弹性形式均显示能源和资本呈替代关系的有30个工业行业,均得到能源和劳动力呈互补关系的有21个行业;(4)在所有的替代关系中,CPE值最小,而MES和SES值相对较大,更倾向于得到两投入要素为替代关系的结论。

With the limitation of energy supply,the uncertainty of substitution between energy and non-energyfactors is regarded as a key process to determine the energy efficiency improvement,new energy development and climate change mitigation policies.Taking the whole industry and 36 sub-industry sectors as samplings,the current paper applies the translog cost function specification to estimate the energy and non-energy own-price substitution,CPE substitution,AES,MES and SES during 1994-2011.The obtained results show several points.（ 1） The own-price substitution elasticities of capital,labor and energy are negative,and those for energy are the smallest,labor and capital hold the first place.（ 2） Energy and capital are substitutes and remain fairly stable in the time series,and energy and labor are substitutes except that in 2011 with mixing performance.（ 3） Among the estimates from the four forms of elasticities of substitution,30 sub-industries demonstrate substantial substitution possibilities between energy and capital,and 21 sub-industries witness that energy and labor is complementary.（ 4） The substitution values obtained by CPE are smaller than those measured by MES and SES which are easy to find substitutes between two inputs.