成员国异质性与欧洲央行的货币政策困境

Heterogeneity of Member States in Euro Area and the Dilemma of ECB in Implementing Monetary Policy

以新凯恩斯主义IS-AS模型为基础,结合中央银行目标函数,推导出中央银行最优货币政策方程,用于检验和评估欧洲中央银行的货币政策成效。研究发现,若赋予欧元区成员国货币政策权限,则成员国央行设定的最优政策利率和目标通货膨胀率会存在显著差异,核心国家控制通胀的意图比外围国家明显;相对于通胀率水平,成员国可能更为关注产出缺口率,与ECB现有通货膨胀目标制的货币政策取向不同。在成员国存在大量异质性的情况下,欧洲央行"一码通吃"的货币政策难免顾此失彼。走出困境须创新货币政策工具,加强欧元区内经济治理,深入有序推进一体化进程。

Based on New Keynesian macroeconomic model and combined with objective function of central banks, optimal mon- etary policy function is derived in order to examine and evaluate monetary policy effectiveness of ECB. The study found that if the member states of euro area were conferred authority on monetary policy, the optimal policy rates and central bank inflation target would be significantly different from each other, and core member states＇ intention to control inflation would be more obvi- ous than peripheral ones ; member states would be more concerned about the output gap than inflation level, which is deviate from policy orientation of ECB. In the case of large heterogeneity among member states, the one - size - fits - all money policy of ECB has to make a trade - off. The euro area should innovate monetary policy tools, enhance economic governance, and promote the integration process orderly.