新兴市场银行危机与货币危机共生性的实证研究——基于美元因素的视角被引量：1

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摘要本文利用72个新兴市场国家(地区)1981年到2014年的年度数据,通过Probit模型进行实证分析,结果发现:第一,在新兴市场国家(地区),银行危机与货币危机互为因果,存在共生关系;第二,对于新兴市场国家(地区)来说,无论是银行危机还是货币危机,都受美元指数变化的显著影响,即美元指数上涨是新兴市场国家(地区)爆发银行危机和货币危机的重要因素;第三,美元指数、美国利率和美国金融风险因素是新兴市场国家(地区)爆发共生危机的主导因素。因此,新兴市场国家(地区)如果要防范共生危机,必须关注美元等国际因素。

作者马宇王庆立王竹芹

机构地区山东工商学院金融学院山东师范大学地理与环境学院

出处《经济学家》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第7期66-75,共10页 Economist

基金国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国合意的跨境资本流量区间测算及管控政策研究"(16ajy026)

关键词银行危机货币危机共生危机美元指数

分类号 F831 [经济管理—金融学]

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